The Bear visited the local market after the 1996 Asia financial crisis and stayed for approximately 134 weeks (33.5 months).

Then The Bear came again after the 2000 dotcom bubble burst and it lasted for around 166 weeks (41.5 months).

The Bear was back again, courtesy of the US sub-prime crisis that began last July. It is only here for 37 weeks (9 months). It looks like it will not leave the market any time soon. How long will the Bear be here this time?

My guess is around 96 weeks (24 months). That means the market will only find its bottom some time in Oct 2009.